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Paper mills' stocks declined slightly. In 2011, new paper production capacity was released, and the demand in the middle and lower reaches was weak. The imbalance between supply and demand led to higher paper mill inventory and lower operating rates. Statistics Bureau data show that in 2011 China's total production mechanism paper and cardboard reached 110 million tons, an increase of 13.2%. However, in December last year, the monthly output was 9.468 million tons, and the growth rate dropped to 5.1%.
At the same time, the amount of imported paper has also dropped significantly. According to statistics from the Bureau of Statistics, China’s cumulative imports of papers reached 3.28 million tons last year, down 1.1% year-on-year; in January this year, paper imports fell by 28% year-on-year. Industry analysts believe that the reason is that new capacity production in the first half of last year promoted production growth, but in the second half of the year, supply exceeded demand, production growth rate fell month by month, paper mills are trying to go to stock.
The inventory data shows that in the downstream printing factory, the operating rate is lower during the Spring Festival and the paper inventory is controlled at a lower level. In terms of dealers, due to the expected release of production capacity, there has always been a wait-and-see attitude, and inventory has remained at a reasonable level. On the producer side, paper prices fell to a low level, shipments improved slightly, and inventories fell slightly but remained above historically reasonable levels.
The paper price has risen steadily from the beginning of the year due to the sharp release of production capacity in 2011. The imbalance between supply and demand has caused the paper price to fall sharply, and the paper enterprises have a strong impulse to destock. After the Spring Festival, downstream enterprises began to replenish stocks. Paper companies took the opportunity to raise prices. Although the price increase was small, the current paper price has increased from the beginning of this year. However, due to the variety of papers, there are also differences in price increases.
Specifically, in terms of double-adhesive paper, Sun Paper (002078) recently raised its offer price by RMB 200/ton. At present, the average price of each brand of double-adhesive paper terminal is RMB 6,238/ton, up slightly from the beginning of the year of RMB 6,225/ton. 0.2%. For coated paper, Chenming Paper (000488) and Sun Paper's price increase after the Spring Festival is around 200 yuan / ton, but the terminal price is only 0.1% higher than the beginning of the year to 5608 yuan / ton. In terms of newsprint, the overall price has been steadily rising since 2011 due to the lack of new capacity in China.
In addition, due to the low operating rate of paper mills, domestic pulp prices fell sharply in 2011, but prices began to increase after the Spring Festival. Paper Industry News data shows that the current average spot price of pulp in China has increased by 2.5% compared with the beginning of the year, reaching 4,870 yuan / ton, which may prompt the prices of various types of paper to continue to rise.
Profit growth rate stabilized and rebounded According to statistics from the Bureau of Statistics, in 2011, the paper industry realized revenue of 671.4 billion yuan, up 21.5% year-on-year; realized net profit of 36.2 billion yuan, up only 6.2% year-on-year; gross profit margin also dropped from 13.5% in 2010 to 13 %. The rapid release of industry capacity and weak demand are the main reasons for the pressure on the industry's earnings.
However, Guoyou Securities (600109) paper industry analyst Wan Youlin believes that the conditions for improving the profitability of the paper industry already have. First, the global economic downturn, wood pulp consumption in the downturn cycle, wood pulp prices will remain low overall; secondly, After shutting down and turning, the paper industry improved supply and demand, increased concentration, and increased pricing power.
Wan Youlin said that the current paper consumption has reached the bottom. With the arrival of the seasonal peak season in the second quarter, the downstream dealers and printing factories will face the demand for replenishment, and the paper price is basically at the bottom, there is a rebound demand, and the purchase is not rising. Under the stimulus of buying and selling, it is expected that paper mill sales will improve significantly in March.
In addition, the year-to-date, the rapid appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar is conducive to reducing the price of domestically imported pulp and saving some costs.
Although the 2011 annual report shows that the paper industry's profits will still decline, but with the reduction of inventory pressure, large paper companies began to raise prices, the paper industry profit will steadily rebound after bottoming out.
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January 21, 2020