How many measures to promote Beijing's economy, such as home appliances to the countryside, home appliance replacement, energy-saving appliances subsidies, furniture trade-in, and so on, have many measures to contribute, and what measures are tending to be "flat"?

Yesterday, the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics and the Beijing Survey Team of the National Bureau of Statistics issued the Beijing Consumer Promotion Policy Report to give specific answers. The report pointed out that Beijing's consumption promotion policy effectively boosted the retail sales by 0.98 percentage points. Among them, the policy can drive up to 35 yuan of retail sales for every dollar invested.

Four policies drove retail sales by nearly one percentage point

Since 2009, the state and Beijing have successively introduced home appliances to the countryside, home appliance trade-in, energy-saving home appliance subsidies, high-efficiency energy-saving home appliance product promotion (collectively referred to as “home appliance promotion”), credit card promotion, expansion of used car export, furniture trade-in and other 7 items. Promote consumption policy. The report shows that in four years and five months, the household appliance promotion consumption policy led to an increase of 14.91 billion yuan in retail sales, and each investment of 1 yuan led to a retail sales of nearly 10 yuan, driving the city's retail sales growth by 0.65 percentage points; The retail sales increased by 6.32 billion yuan, and each investment of 1 yuan could drive the retail sales of 35 yuan, driving the city's retail sales to increase by 0.28 percentage points; the automobile promotion consumption policy drove the retail sales by 1.22 billion yuan, driving the city's retail sales growth by 0.05 percentage points. Together with the furniture promotion measures, the four policies increased the retail sales by 22.45 billion yuan. Among the 12.6% of the city's retail sales growth, the policy factor pulled up by 0.98 percentage points. Zhao Ping, deputy director of the Consumer Economics Department of the Ministry of Commerce, said that from the current data, these consumer promotion policies have indeed played a significant role in the short term. Household appliances consume 5%-6% of the total consumption, and credit card consumption also It is not very high. It is very rare to use this policy to drive retail sales growth by nearly one percentage point, indicating that these policies have indeed met or exceeded the previous goal of promoting consumption.

"Furniture trade-in" power is zero

It is worth mentioning that the furniture replacement policy is zero, which is much lower than previously expected. It is understood that in 2012, Beijing introduced a policy of replacing the furniture with the old one. The implementation period of the policy was November 2012, and it took one month.

In this regard, Hong Tao, director of the Institute of Business Economics of Beijing Technology and Business University, believes that the time for furniture renewal is too short, and many people may not know the policy, it is over. In addition, November is the off-season of furniture sales. In addition, the old-for-new furniture is difficult to classify and operate, which has caused it to have no substantial impact on the market.

A long-term mechanism for expanding consumer demand should be established

The report also pointed out that since the implementation period of each policy belongs to different stages, the duration of the preferential period varies. Assuming that the various consumption promotion policies are implemented at the same time and work together, the general driving force is that the various policies may reach The biggest effect can jointly drive the city's retail sales growth by 3.83 percentage points.

The relevant person in charge of the Municipal Bureau of Statistics said that at present, the main problem of the contradiction between macroeconomic supply and demand is insufficient demand. Therefore, the focus of the policy should be to increase the willingness of residents to consume, and should accelerate the establishment of a long-term mechanism to expand consumer demand. It is recommended to continue to introduce new policies to promote consumption and increase new varieties. If new policies are introduced, it is necessary to appropriately extend the implementation time and increase policy propaganda.

In Zhao Ping’s view, the future promotion of consumption-oriented policies should focus on some industries that have a high proportion of consumption and great growth potential. If the proportion of consumption is too low, even if the consumption-promoting policy plays a role, it will not cause a big impact on overall consumption. Industries that have an impact and have high growth potential can prevent overcapacity on the one hand. On the other hand, faster growth can ensure policy sustainability.

Four major consumption promotion policies implementation time

â–  Appliance sales promotion: From January 2009 to the end of May 2013, after four years and five months.

â–  Expanding the export of used cars: November-December 2011, after two months.

â–  Swipe to promote consumption: September 2011 to January 2012, October 2012 to March 2013, after 11 months.

â–  Furniture trade-in: November 2012, after one month.

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